METHODOLOGY
How Reorder Forecasting is Calculated
A technical explanation of the six forecast indicators — reactive ordering, stockout proximity, dead inventory, reorder variance, freight volatility, and seasonal degradation. Covers how each is scored per account and per SKU, and how composite urgency is derived.
CATEGORY ANALYSIS
Paper Goods Forecasting Accuracy in Distribution
An analysis of why paper goods SKUs produce the highest reorder variance in the JanSan category. Covers the consumption volatility drivers (tissue vs. towel vs. liner), how the forecast engine weights variance differently by SKU type, and what operators can do to improve signal quality.
PRACTICE NOTE
Lead Time as the Only Manual Input
Allodial Predict uses lead time as the only operator-configured threshold. This note explains the design decision: why manual reorder thresholds create systematic overrides of learned patterns, and how predictions self-calibrate from usage history without requiring ongoing configuration.
FORECAST FRAMEWORK
Reactive Ordering: Definition, Measurement, and Intervention
The most common stress indicator in distribution. Reactive ordering occurs when reorder decisions are triggered by customer contact or stockout proximity rather than projected runout. This piece defines the signal, explains how it is measured in the forecast engine, and what intervention looks like.
PRACTICE NOTE
Dead Inventory: When to Write Off vs. When to Act
Dead inventory is capital trapped in slow or obsolete SKUs. The forecast engine flags accounts where specific SKUs have not moved in a threshold period. This note explains the detection logic and the decision framework for disposition.
